Arizona Expects Job Growth

Good news for Arizonians!  The Arizona Department of Commerce recently reported in its bi-annual employment forecast that for the first time in three years, the state is expected to start gaining jobs in 2011.  Economists predicted the state will add about 17,300 non-farm jobs an increase of about 0.7 percent.  While meager, this is promising news for Arizona.  In fact, some experts expect gains of up to 2 percent.  The commerce department expects gains in 2012 could be even better, with an addition of about 34,600 jobs, or 1.4 percent of the state’s total.

Contributing Factors

There are numerous factors contributing to this positive outlook such as improvements in the national economy, stronger business and consumer spending, slightly better bank financing, and a weak dollar that may encourage foreigner visitors.  Foreign investment is already evident in the local real estate market.

However, there are still many threats to the economy such as high unemployment, weak housing markets, reduced state and local spending to include state cuts in medical spending for the destitute, and increased gas prices, that could affect the state’s most steady source of jobs which are in the medical field.

Strongest Sectors

Private education and health services are the two most promising sectors which could see a 3.6 percent gain.  Leisure and hospitality would be a close second at 3 percent.  The rise is likely as health care providers, hotels and resorts, and education companies hire more employees.

A Scottsdale-based economist, Jim Rounds, notes that the “recovery is just basically beginning six months later than (we expected) before.”  Notably, Arizona added about 2,500 jobs in February and March, compared with a year earlier, according to the Labor Department.

Job Fairs

Job fairs show signs of improvement with about 1,300 Arizona applicants landing jobs at a McDonald’s national hiring event April 19th.  The food store Bashas’ sent out a news release announcing job fairs as it looks to fill more than 400 full and part-time positions for its Food City, Bashas’ and AJ’s Fine Foods locations.

Forecasts

The consensus forecast among 15 Arizona economists is calling for an addition of 24,000 jobs, or about 1 percent this year compared with 2010.  Commerce Department economists expect certain sectors to do better than others based on job growth to date but conceded that some factors such as the state’s plans to shrink its health-care plan for the poor could reduce medical and other jobs.  Still, the department predicted the health care, private-education, leisure, and hospitality sectors will add jobs at higher percentages this year than other sectors, at 12,500 jobs (or 3.6 percent) and 7,700 jobs (or 3.1 percent), respectively.

Next year, the natural-resources and mining sector is forecast to be the job-growth leader with a 4.3 percent increase because an improved worldwide economy should spur a demand for Arizona’s copper, the Commerce Department said.   The private-education area is doing well because many adults have been going back to school, specifically online.

The leisure and hospitality sector, which caters to tourists, business travelers and local residents who patronize restaurants and hotels, is expected to add 7,700 jobs this year and 9,700 in 2012, partially due to a weaker dollar which could attract more world visitors.

So even with concerns such as rising gas prices and health care cuts, overall, a positive outlook for Arizona and a glimmer of hope that we will slowly start to recover from the recessive economy.

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